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Good morning,

TACO reigns supreme.

Let's debrief on the latest news and then we can think about what it all means. At this hour, the US and Iran are in a mutually agreed upon two-week ceasefire, in a deal brokered by Pakistan that is being spun as a victory by both Tehran and DC. This is good news. Ceasefire beats warfare every day of the week, regardless of what it took to get there (threats of genocide and nuclear annihilation, in this case).

The deal came together at the last minute, along the lines of one of the scenarios we predicted here yesterday. Trump applied maximal pressure in the final hours, including a threat to wipe out an entire civilization of people. Trump's Madman Theory of negotiation bore fruit in that it pushed this ceasefire over the line. Though that is very different from "winning" the war. The TACO came in via Truth Social just before 7 p.m. ET, more or less exactly how we were predicting it would in our group chat over on Subtext. 

The terms of the cessation of hostilities hinge on Iran agreeing to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which it has agreed to do. As of this morning, two big tankers have moved through the chokepoint unimpeded. This is another hopeful sign that the oil will start to flow, and the markets are reacting as such. Brent crude plunged 15% overnight, back below $100 per barrel. Stocks are ripping higher.

Iran has also put forth a 10-point peace proposal that is basically a rehash of their maximalist demands, which President Trump called a "workable basis on which to negotiate." That is a far cry from his previous demands of "unconditional surrender" and signifies the president is willing to walk away from this conflict without getting anything close to what he had originally wanted. Overnight, Trump spoke on Truth Social in effusive terms, saying Iran "had enough" of war and "so has everyone else," and suggesting this could be a "Golden Age of the Middle East!!!"

Translation: He is cutting bait on this thing. Assuming the Iranians or Israelis don't do something crazy to drag us back in over the next two weeks, the bombing is done. We are out. The only question that remains is how to frame it as a win for the big guy.

Enter the spin machine. Today will be full of White House officials and allies speaking on and off the record to reporters and going in front of cameras to spin this into a big victory for Trump, and another loss for the "panicans" who don't "trust the plan." Never mind that it didn't solve anything and we're just back to where we were on Feb. 27. Trump called it "total and complete victory" in a call with one outlet last night. Pete Hegseth repeated that language in his presser this morning, and will be followed by Karoline Leavitt in the afternoon. And that's OK. If our pretending that this was a huge, unqualified victory helps to keep the peace or keep the POTUS from feeling he has more to prove in two weeks, we should all be fine with that.

But if this is the beginning of a negotiated end to the war — and we can all hope and pray that it is — let's also be clear-eyed about what it did and did not accomplish.

What it has accomplished:

... what am I missing?

What it has not accomplished:

So, what is likely to happen now? Maybe we set back Iran's nuclear program a few months or a year since they're going to need to focus on rebuilding everything we've flattened first and reconstitute the regime. That will take some time. But you better believe they are going to be more intent on getting a nuke than ever to keep this from happening again. I suspect in retrospect we will also look back on this as a pivotal moment in nuclear proliferation, as other rogue and weakened states sprint for their own bomb after seeing what happens to those who don't have them. Either you end up with a bayonet up your ass like Gaddafi, hanged in a dungeon like Saddam, or flattened in your house like Khamenei. Or get yourself a nuke and you can be chillaxing, smoking cigs and going to military parades in a cool leather jacket like Lil’ Kim in North Korea.  

But in the short term, the biggest potential fly in the ointment is the Israelis. While they have officially signed onto this fragile ceasefire, the reports out of Israel are that Netanyahu and his fanatical government are furious Trump caved. Can we count on them not to break the peace? Can we count on them not to meddle in Hormuz as a way to get the war going again?

If you read one thing today, make it this deeply reported piece in the New York Times (gift link) from Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan, two reporters who are as sourced up in Trumpworld as any. The story is about how the war started, and includes incredible details from a meeting in the Sit Room in February during which Netanyahu made the "hard sell" on Trump for a full-blown war, suggesting all sorts of things that our own intelligence officials said were never going to happen (regime change, internal uprising). But Trump ended up buying what Bibi was selling, even after his own Cabinet told him the Israelis' claims about what was achievable were "farcical" and "bullshit". You can tell the reporting is legit because of how it makes clear everyone else in the room had deep reservations, all the way up the CIA director, national security advisor and veep. They’re trying to save their own hides.

The story behind the story is those people — Ratcliffe, Caine, Vance, Rubio, et al. —understanding something that Trump does not, which is that the legacy of this fiasco is going to be the US blowback against Israel. A new Pew poll shows 60% of Americans with an unfavorable view of Israel, including the majority of people under 50 — in both parties. The Boomers might still be holding on to the idea that the Israelis are our greatest ally, but the generations beneath them see Israel as just another rogue state to be managed or abandoned altogether. That is going to have huge implications for US domestic politics and foreign policy in the years ahead. That Trump's own inner circle burned Netanyahu as the guy who convinced their boss to eat this shit sandwich, via their leaks to the NYT, suggests they see that writing on the wall and are already positioning themselves for a post-Trump landscape. 

But for now, the guns have fallen silent. This is good. Let us be grateful that sanity has prevailed, even if it's only temporary. And let's pray it holds.

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Carlo Versano is Newsweek's Director of Politics and Culture. He has in-depth knowledge and experience covering a range of topics and stories over a 20-year career in the news business. Carlo joined Newsweek in 2024 after a stint at The Messenger. Before that, he was an Emmy-winning producer at NBC News. He is a graduate of the University of Richmond and the New School. You can get in touch with Carlo by emailing [email protected].

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