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Good morning,

Sometimes I think the YouTube algorithm knows me better than my own family. Here's a video that was just served to me as I logged on this morning to look for some writing music. Someone set last night's Artemis II launch to Free Bird, with the guitar riff lined up perfectly for liftoff. America, baby! That was so cool, I hope everyone was able to watch it live. One of the best parts of parenthood is that you get to witness all the wonders of life through the eyes of your kid, like it's the first time. Now the little one has all these questions about space travel that I am unequipped to answer. Important questions like: How do the astronauts go pee? Do they miss their mommies and daddies when they're up there? How big is space, anyway?

Back here on Earth, it's clear that the war in Iran is not winding down but, in fact, escalating. President Trump delivered a 20-minute address to the nation last night, ostensibly laying out the state of play in Iran. Something very jarring about going from witnessing the miracle of human spaceflight and American ingenuity to our sundowning commander-in-chief rambling about how great he is, how we're bombing Iran back to "the Stone Ages," (so much for "help is on the way!"), how we're winning (Hormuz: still closed), and how we need to keep the war in perspective because this is a "true investment in your children and your grandchildren's future." Because I am in a generous mood, I will give Trump points for at least bothering to make his case for the war to the American people, even if it's a day late and a dollar short. 

That said, the president did not really tell us anything we didn't already know. It was mostly an oral reading of his various Truth Social posts on the subject, and he repeated his go-to timeframe that we just need two or three more weeks to complete our objectives, which they seem to be settling on as follows: bomb the shit out of Iran's conventional weapons capabilities and then come back and do it again if needed at some later date. This is a far cry from regime change and is more or less Israel's "mow-the-lawn" strategy, btw, which I guess we are taking on as our own now. Trump also seemed to rule out a raid to get the uranium, or "nuclear dust," though that could also be a bit of subterfuge. 

I taped an interview with Anthony Scaramucci yesterday, which we'll put up on Monday, and The Mooch was convinced a ground invasion is imminent. His reasoning was simply that Trump likes to use the toys at his disposal, and the US military is the biggest, baddest toy he has. Why move 50K troops into the region if you're not going to use 'em? The Mooch's view was also backed up by an anonymous Polymarket bettor who just wagered $800K on an imminent ground invasion. The same person previously bet $500K correctly predicting the exact moment we first attacked Iran, so make of that what you will.

One thing the president's address last night certainly did do was unsettle the markets, which were finally showing glimmers of hope that this thing was maybe, possibly, showing signs of de-escalating with murmurs of a ceasefire going around. Now oil is back up around $110, and the Dow is down 500 ahead of a three-day weekend that might be used as the starting gun for a ground operation, either to get the uranium or to secure the SoH. Trump also said last night that the Hormuz issue is not our problem, as he tries to jawbone the Europeans to get involved in cleaning up the mess we created. But it is our problem. Energy is traded on global markets. Which means even though we are a net exporter of oil, we are not immune to price fluctuations in those markets. Mideast clusterf*cks = high gas prices. This is something even the dumbest American can grasp. And even if we were insulated from the price of oil, a major energy shock that sparks a global recession is also no bueno for us, either. Though it would at least crash the housing market, which would be good for me, personally.

Arguably, Trump said something much more revealing earlier in the day at an Easter lunch reception at the White House. He was free-associating about the role of the federal government in funding social services like Medicare and daycare. Let's hear it from the horse's mouth:

“It’s not possible for us to take care of daycare, Medicaid, Medicare, all these individual things. They can do it on a state basis. You can’t do it on a federal. We have to take care of one thing: military protection. We have to guard the country. But all these little things, all these little scams that have taken place, all you have to you have to let states take care of them."

Sometimes you must wonder if this guy is trying to torpedo the Republican party in the midterms. Because if you were going to handcraft a message most likely to be used against your party in political ads this fall, "We can't fund Medicare because we need to keep fighting wars in the Middle East" would have to be it, right? I legitimately think there's something to this theory. Trump operates best when he has a worthy foil. Right now the Dems don't make for a good foil because they're weak and out of power. But when they win back control of Congress and start working on his third impeachment, that will give Trump a domestic enemy to battle. You think he's worried he'll be impeached again? Please, he's probably looking forward to the fight. If you take as a given that he could not care less about the state of the GOP as a party — and might even prefer that it be weakened to show what will happen when he's no longer in charge — this actually starts to make some sense.

And if you're a Democrat running for anything from dogcatcher to Senate this year, and you can't win against a "war over daycare" message, you should consider a different line of work. Politics just might not be your thing.

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Carlo Versano is Newsweek's Director of Politics and Culture. He has in-depth knowledge and experience covering a range of topics and stories over a 20-year career in the news business. Carlo joined Newsweek in 2024 after a stint at The Messenger. Before that, he was an Emmy-winning producer at NBC News. He is a graduate of the University of Richmond and the New School. You can get in touch with Carlo by emailing [email protected].

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“We’re going back to the f*cking moon, that’s why!”

— Unidentified little boy when asked by a CNN reporter why he was excited about the Artemis II launch.

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