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Good morning,

We got a couple new high-quality polls this week and whoa boy, are they bleak. Fox has the president -52 on inflation (!). Quinnipiac has him at 33% on the economy and 34% overall, with Dems +11 on the generic ballot. If you're wary of individual polls, the best way to get a snapshot of the president's numbers is by looking at the RealClear polling average. And that's got Trump sub 40 now. A president with a 3-handle on his job approval going into a midterm is a recipe for disaster. Unless, maybe, your opponents are The Democrats. The Quinnipiac poll puts Dems at just 20% overall approval. Among men, Dems are at a healthy 16% (!).

So as incredibly unpopular as our corrupt and failing president is, he's significantly more popular than the opposition... even as the same opposition is dominating on the generic ballot. The way to read that is that the median American voter hates everybody right now but is willing to vote D to put a check on this lawless administration and punish its party for going along with said lawlessness. With a national mood like that, it's no wonder nobody seems to care about the 250th anniversary, World Cup, or much else.

With the party's image in the toilet, a lot of people have asked me some version of the question: "Why aren't the Democrats out there more? Where's the fight? Who is the party’s leader?”

The strategy is obviously for any elected Dem not at risk of losing their seat in November to sit back and let Trump implode. Just shut up and let Trump keep talking about the ballroom while gas keeps rising. Probably a smart strategy for now. Certainly, an easy one. But eventually, some of the folks who want to lead this party are gonna have to start coming up with some ideas and policies that are more than just about being anti-Trump.

The optimistic take is that environments like the one we're in, where just about everyone is pissed at just about everybody with any position of power, is that it's the cauldron from which interesting, unexpected things often spring. It was a similar political environment that launched Barack Obama in the back half of our last failed GOP president when everyone had finally soured on Iraq. And then of course it was Obama's own failures in the back nine of his presidency that paved the way for The Don. So, if you're a hardcore Dem who feels like you're still without a leader, don't fret too much. I have a sneaking suspicion that the nascent 2028 field is going to look much different a year from now than it does today.

Meantime, I'm enjoying the spectacle of Republicans and their half-assed attempts at trying to manufacture consent for a new military intervention, this time in checks notes Cuba. The DOJ indicted 94-year-old Raul Castro yesterday as the White House continues to turn the screws on the regime. I then caught the always normal-sounding Stephen Miller on Fox last night talking about how Cuba is a NATIONAL SECURITY THREAT to the US that must be DEALT WITH and Trump is the man to finally do it! The Cuban-born Rep. Carlos Gimenez was then trotted out to push a highly suspicious Axios report that Havana has amassed a fleet of drones capable of reaching Florida.

I like the idea that an island of 11M people that has run out of fuel and is having a hard time keeping its incubators running is also planning a mass drone strike on Key West. They insult our intelligence every day, man. If we're about to do regime change in Cuba so Marco Rubio can appease the million-or-so Republican-voting Cubans of southern Florida, just say so. You don't have to piss on my leg and tell me it's raining — that this little island run by a bunch of corrupt 90-year-old communists is a threat to the United States of America. Come on. I guess we'll know the invasion is imminent when Fox starts reporting that Havana is two weeks away from a nuclear weapon.

I'll leave it there today since we've been going long this week. Just a little housekeeping first:

Newsweek just launched two great newsletters for your inbox consideration. China Decoded, edited by my brilliant colleague Frances Mao, is all about China (duh) and US policy in the Pacific. Midterms Monitor, edited by the equally brilliant Dan Orton and Alex Rouhandeh, is a reader's guide to the coming elections. We'll still cover that here too, of course, in our patented/unhinged style.

Lastly, on the personal front because so many have asked: my surgery is scheduled for a week from tomorrow. I hope to only be out of commission for a week or so, and I'll send some recovery updates out via our group chat on Subtext. While I am out, Jesus (the other one) will take the wheel. Go easy on him.

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Carlo Versano is Newsweek's Director of Politics and Culture. He has in-depth knowledge and experience covering a range of topics and stories over a 20-year career in the news business. Carlo joined Newsweek in 2024 after a stint at The Messenger. Before that, he was an Emmy-winning producer at NBC News. He is a graduate of the University of Richmond and the New School. You can get in touch with Carlo by emailing [email protected].

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Democratic primaries are testing the influence of Senator Bernie Sanders, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and their allies, who have endorsed a slate of progressive Democrats for the 2026 midterm elections.

Recent primaries are doubling as a proxy war over the party’s direction, and progressives are lining up behind a slate of left-leaning challengers while party leaders and moderates rally around more centrist picks. From Senate races in states like Maine to House contests across the country, these primaries present a key test as to whether the energy of the Sanders wing of the party can translate into durable power.

To expand on what Carlo notes above, the Department of Justice unsealed their indictment of former Cuban President Raul Castro over the 1996 downing of two Brothers to the Rescue planes that left four people dead, in what marks a dramatic escalation in U.S. pressure against Cuba’s regime.

I spoke with GOP Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, the daughter of Cuban exiles, who celebrated the news by telling me bluntly: “He should die.”

She also signaled that President Trump could offer Castro “the same things that he offered Maduro,” insinuating that if Castro refuses a deal, he could face a fate similar to Maduro.

Salazar went even further, calling Cuba “the mothership of evil.” She argued that Cuba has long served as a hub where “Russia, China, Iran, Hezbollah” have all operated or trained in ways aimed against the United States.

Watch my story on Castro’s indictment, including my interview with Rep. Salazar, here.

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Bill Cassidy, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, and Thom Tillis have already voted against him on Iran war powers, ballroom funding, and nominations. Freed from electoral pressure after primary losses or announced retirements, they have no incentive to fall in line.

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His approval ratings are underwater in every Senate battleground state. Maine shows negative 17. Even Texas, where he won by 14 points, sits at negative 3. A Paxton victory over Cornyn could cost Republicans the general election, handing Democrats a seat they were not expecting to win.

Trump is betting that a more ideologically aligned Senate majority in 2027 justifies the seat losses in 2026. His long game is consolidating control through loyalty tests, accepting short-term congressional weakness for future leverage over his party. Whether that gamble pays off depends on whether his preferred candidates can win when he is toxic with swing voters.

“We lost 13 people [in Iran]. In other wars, you lost hundreds of thousands of people... I get a kick when I look at somebody on television and they say, 'he's lost 13 people.'”

—President Trump test-driving his Memorial Day message.

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Newsweek is part of the Trust Project, which focuses on honesty, accuracy and fairness in journalism. Read more about our best practices. To get in touch with our newsroom with suggestions on how to point out possible errors, please contact us at [email protected].